The beginning of the end for Trump

The beginning of the end for Trump.

The end of the beginning of Presidential Executive Orders…

Let me take these two rather different things separately. Yesterday, American voters, to use one of the many brilliant US phrases, “showed Trump his ass”. Senate seats for the Democrats stood at 48 (out of 100; two Senators in each of the 50 states). The Democrats needed to win two seats that the Republicans had previously won by 10 percentage points or more. This had not happened in 50 years. Winning six seats, in a time of polarised politics, is unique, and was only possible due to the extraordinary unpopularity of the President, whose approval rating was polling at 37%. Trump said, “Imagine I’m on the ballot”; well, he got what he wished for.

£1,500 is a realistic additional cost per household per year as a direct result of Trump’s tariffs. Econ 101, as many sixth-formers pointed out to the President, invariably results in importers and manufacturers passing on these tariff increases directly to the consumer. A gallon of gas in the US now costs just under $7. $7!! In February of this year, it was $3. The US is large and doesn’t have a comprehensive rail network, at least not one widely used by its populace. They drive or fly. All of these fuel price increases are being passed on to consumers. Yesterday, these consumers showed President Trump what they thought about this.

This is the beginning of the end of the Trump era. The Democrats could waste valuable congressional time by pursuing Trump over a whole swathe of corruption allegations, where he has sought to profit and capitalise upon his office. My own suggestion would be, for the moment, to let him luxuriate in his own wealth and focus on pulling the country forwards, because if ever that was needed, surely it is now. In a nation built on immigration, ICE has done the country no favours. Data centre rollouts are all well and good for the “Big 7”, yet these infrastructural spends are time-limited. Their stock increases appear, at the very least, unrelated to anticipated revenue gains. The country has much to do.

However, given the power of the Presidential Executive Order, however self-righteously future Presidents may rail against this arbitrary (ab)use of power, they are likely to be drawn, moth-like, to its efficiency, speed and lack of accountability. Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely… Senior Democratic strategists have already noted that, in realpolitik terms, Trump’s secession from leadership of the international order needed to happen, and is unlikely to be substantially reversed. On the NATO front, Obama, speaking for the Democrats, voiced the reservations that Trump has put into practice. It is the Executive Order that has allowed these seismic underlying shifts to take place at the speed they have.

It may be a constitutional Pandora’s Box, but it is one that doesn’t appear to be closing any time soon…midterms #congress #Trump #Democrats

#midterms #congress #Trump #Democrats

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Author: Damian Merciar

Damian Merciar is Managing Director of Merciar Business Consulting, http://www.merciar.com, a niche business economics consultancy founded in 1998. He has over twenty years experience in the areas of commercial Business Strategy. He is experienced in the transition environments of nationalized to private sector state utilities and the senior practice of commercial management, advisorial consultancy, and implementation. He has carried out policy advisory work for government ministries and been an adviser to institutional bodies proposing changes to government. He holds an MSc Economics from the University of Surrey’s leading Economics department and an MBA from the University of Kent. Also attending the leading University in the Middle East, studying International Relations and Language, for which he won a competitive international scholarship, and has a BA (Hons) in Economic History and Political Economy from the University of Portsmouth. He is currently based in London.

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