There is a real brittleness in British politics at the moment, and it seems that the reality is this is not going to change. It is no small thing that the primacy of the two leading parties has been challenged so comprehensively, that the genie is not going to go back in the bottle.

In Scotland, The SNP were returned to power, winning 58 seats out of 129 members of the Scottish Parliament. John Swinney, reinstated as First Minister has already stated that, though not in possession of a majority, he will not seek to form a working coalition and shall approach each Bill as it comes. On many areas there are crossovers between the SNP and the Labour Party, yet this is to discount the profoundly tribalistic aspect of politics at every level.

Even the SNP, on its fifth successfully contested Parliamentary election, knows the divisiveness of seeking a referendum on Independence, yet the rather key fact is that of the three other components of the Union, in each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, their majority party is now an avowedly Nationalist party, seeking independence from the United Kingdom.

#KeirStarmer has, through the tinnest ear in modern British history, inadvertently dismantled the red wall, whose mortar was still wet after having been destroyed in the 2019 General Election, via a near total routing of the #LabourParty and it’s Northern and Midlands’ heartlands, by the Conservatives, and then subsequently rebuilt in 2024 – with Labour’s new supermajority. Well, at least as regards the Local Elections, this red wall is now #Reform teal (a weird mix of light blue and turquoise!).

Whilst Keir has promised “to listen”, and renew his message, he seems to have forgotten that that was his offer to the British electorate just 22 months ago: “Change”. One word, and one man, graced their 2024 manifesto. As any Brit knows, who had not lived upside down in a swamp for the previous 14 years, the country was screaming for change, after the abandonment of duty and the complete loss of credibility by the previous Conservative Administration.

What literally nobody expected, given the keys to the country, the shiny new driver meandered aimlessly through backwaters, hitting the beach, and not pausing either for breath or self-reflection, would drive his Party straight into the sea – thereby in one entirely unanticipated move he has potentially done more damage to the Union, than Robert the Bruce in 1328. An astonishing achievement if it had been intentional, and yet quite unparalleled as was actually inadvertent. The 2024 Manifesto did not say, “I promise to cause such dismay as to my aimlessness, that the entire country will rebel, ushering in a new age of the least tested party in British history – who seek a little Englander future – in direct contrast to everything that the United Kingdom has stood for, post Union – which I have also successfully hobbled”

But don’t worry, he has promised to “reflect and respond.”

So that’s ok then….😊🤦🏻

The New York Times is generally considered, although a reliable source, as a Democratic house bible. The last time they endorsed a Republican candidate for President was 1956 (Eisenhower). Republicans rightly point to this before they begin any considered analysis of, certainly any editorially inspired piece. However Peter Baker is somewhat different, as Chief White House Correspondent of the NYT, he is held in high esteem across parties. So I consider it really quite interesting that the argument as to the state of President Trump’s mental health is now to the fore of a great deal of the US Establishment.

My piece below is less illustrious than his, and I certainly don’t have access to Trump’s former Press Secretary who describes him as, “clearly not well”.

The 25th Amendment, ratified after the assassination of John F Kennedy in 1967, allows for the replacement of a sitting President – or actually, in the case of Section 4 of this Amendment, The “involuntary transfer of power”, should he be deemed unfit for Office, by the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet. This is almost certainly not going to happen – but the fact that it is being spoken about openly, is of seismic importance in US politics.

See Peter Baker’s piece in the NYT, and my own from two months ago:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/us/politics/trump-mental-fitness-25th-amendment.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

https://merciar.com/2026/01/21/psychology-and-trump/

#USPolitics #Trump #25thAmendment

I wanted to quote British philosopher, Edmund Burke, to whom it is attributed, “Evil flourishes when good men do nothing”

Iran has seen off Alexander the Great, and Genghis Khan… and to paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen to Dan Quayle during the 1988 vice-presidential debate, “Mr President, you’re no Genghis Khan”… Iran, and very likely this regime itself, will see out Trump. Indeed, now almost certainly emboldened towards achieving nuclear status. An entirely backward step by Trump.

Admittedly, I had to look it up as this wasn’t Burke’s actual quote, which was:
“When bad men combine, the good must associate, else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle”

“The good must associate”. In modern parlance this means quite simply, the international community calling Trump out. For instance I believe an immediate reversal of the decision for King Charles to conduct a State visit this month.

Our King, like Queen Elizabeth before him, is actually one of the world’s great natural diplomats. I do not believe Trump warrants diplomacy at this juncture. He warrants international condemnation.

#Trump #KingCharles #Iran #Civilisation

How to win every battle and still lose the war.

Donald J Trump manages to deprave himself yet further with almost every utterance. That would be fine, even if he was a President in the previous mode, following regular American Presidential practice of respecting Congress, particularly in relation to waging war on countries that up until that point, were actively engaged in diplomacy. Which nation can now trust the word of the US? Would you? My own experience of Northern Ireland taught me that you cannot subjugate an ideology through force. Only negotiation can secure peace. Trump’s actions belittle the US and actually indicate something far more serious: its diminution in the eyes of the whole world.

The Iranian regime has lost its Air Force, and its Navy… It has lost the substantive methods by which it can refine uranium. Yet it hasn’t lost its knowledge to do so, nor actually the 400 kg of 60% refined uranium buried in the debris of previous attacks. Nor has it lost its regime. Somebody with the name Khamenei has recently been appointed to Supreme Leader; the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and the Foreign Secretary remain the same. This Khamenei doesn’t have the theological credentials of his father, being more rooted in the militarism and self-interest of the IRGC, so arguably it could even be a retrograde step as this force consolidates its powerbase.

Closing of the Straits of Hormuz is proving a cash cow to both the Iranian and Russian leadership, as through force of necessity, the US has suspended its sanctions on their oil. Simultaneously, of course nearly every other vessel can’t get through, including crucial elements for the world economy such vital rare earths – and particularly nitrogen and potassium fertilisers. I’ve recently learnt that helium is essential in the production of microchips. The Middle East is one of the world’s leading locations for the production of nitrogen fertiliser, completely fundamental in maintaining farming yields. We are currently at the start of the main northern hemispheric spring planting season. Food inflation is one thing, food shortages are something entirely different.

The US electorate who predominantly chose Trump for his stated lack of interest in foreign intervention, is particularly sensitive to price increases at home, most notably at the gas pumps – in a land dependent upon the car.

The UK, for all its flaws, managed to replace Liz Truss in just over 40 days. Donald J Trump is now on something like 500, and for very many Americans this is 501 too many. To paraphrase Henry II, “Will nobody rid me of this meddlesome President?”

The Chinese are loving it, this week’s Economist cover states, “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”

Iran #Trump #Diplomacy #Hormuz

Bank of England’s decision to hold rates…Part of me is actually inclined to suggest an interest rate cut. Of course I get the whole rationale for holding rates, with actually a reversal of the anticipated two cuts… Monthly GDP figures for December showing 0.1% growth, followed by 0% in January,  indicates a nearly entirely flatlining economy. It’s usually best not to use monthly figures yet, in both the third and fourth quarters of 2025, the UK economy grew by 0.1%. In addition of course, UK Unemployment is at 5.2% for the 3 months to January, marking a 5-year high, with nearly 2 million people officially unemployed – excluding the significant numbers, estimated at 9 million adults who are economically inactive, surely the highest rate recorded, at just over 20%

There is a widespread fear youth unemployment is becoming entrenched… With roughly three quarters of a million young people unemployed, excluding those who are outside of both education or training, yet not classed as unemployed… 

Meanwhile, an essential geopolitical assessment shows, actually for a host of US political reasons – a significant political vulnerability in the relationship between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the US. In no small part caused by the very presence of US bases on their territory, that are designed for protection – have directly led to these countries being targeted. 

Some analysts feel that this war is about to hit total stalemate, without any further military escalation on the part of the US – regarding the (im)possibility of troops on the ground – therefore it really does look as if the conflict itself doesn’t have too much longer to run. Domestic US pressures will also likely ensure a change of tack by the US soon, primarily to free the traffic in the Straits of Hormuz.

Yet…the military considerations as to damage done, cannot be glossed over lightly, regarding their impact upon the global economy. Early on the morning of 19th of March, Iran attacked Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant, Which is so large that it produces a fifth of global LNG supply. The Iranian regime has said that 17% of the plant has been so extensively damaged it will take 5 years to fix. This directly equates to roughly 4% of global LNG supply being removed from the market overnight – and whilst UK reliance on Qatari LNG has reduced from a peak of 40% in 2011 to currently 2% of imports, the UK must still buy its LNG at global prices, which have taken a huge spike. Given the importance to the international economy of these refineries across Gulf countries, both Iran and the US have stated in principle they do not wish to target energy production. As so very many of the military targets in Iran have been compromised or entirely destroyed, If there is to be a moratorium on attacking energy, this itself could shorten the conflict. If the US stops fighting, Israel will also stop. 

#Economy #Iran #Qatar #LNG

On reflection, should Rachel Reeves have given an entirely different Spring Statement last week, given that days before, this conflict with Iran had begun and the gilt markets were spasming? They have now trended up… Depending on the length, intensity, and whether or not the UK does involve itself substantially, our entire economic projection in the short to medium term could be altered by this conflict. The fundamentals of her presentation had shifted, and actually a “holding statement” could credibly have been issued in Parliament. Similarly, should this conflict end within the week – as has been signalled – it could have simply resembled a blip in the yield curve… That is before the fiscal reality of how to bring forward structured Defence spending kicks in. It appears worse than this in that of our six Destroyers only three are operational, and two of these are in even lesser states of readiness than HMS Dragon. Again it’s not just Naval deployment It’s also the rather serious consideration of the fact that RAF Akrotiri, as one of our key bases in the entire Middle East area (technically the near East), should have had far more proficient and aircraft and anti-drone technology. This has been known about for a long time. I myself visited Akrotiri when I was in the Forces a number of years ago and then it felt like it was something from the 70’s. I dare say it has now moved forwards to the 90s, but there is still much work to do…

Strategically this US/Iran conflict is a disaster. Negotiations were progressing on the nuclear front, literally the day before Trump decided to mount these attacks. There is no pause for reflection, no moments of quiet; no concept whatsoever of an overarching strength projection, on the part of the US. They said they wanted to silo and focus on themselves, and in the last 3 months alone they have intervened in Venezuela, Nigeria and now Iran.. spending resources and reallocations of materiel, with zero clue as to their intended function. Military Assets are duly not correctly configured for East Asia, and a host of other strategic irregularities. Not least the Iranian conflict strategically benefits Russia by a changing away of the gaze, and by the US themselves acting as first aggressor.. And, of course tactically, by a significant increase in oil price and a potential realisation in the value of Russia’s enormous gas assets.

Quiet – If only the US could simply sit and contemplate what they actually want: no ICE domestically, and, no gung-ho internationally, whilst they do this. These random and inconsistent acts on the international stage diminish the US as the leader of the free world. This free world needs a more stable, “Daddy”, as Mark Rutte, obsequiously referred to Trump – in his capacity as Head of NATO, of course, playing to his vanity, whilst illustrating NATO’s impotence – instead of powering forwards the diplomacy required for far more powerful, succinct and orchestrated European defence integration.

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#Iran #Gas #Geoeconomics #Conflict #US