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For quite a few months I have, on this blog, been alluding to a paper that I had written which showed that the natural rate of interest is implicitly dependent on the EMH in its strong-form in order to be coherent. I have finally published this paper (in working paper form) with the Levy Institute and it can be read here:

Endogenous Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: The Reemergence of Liquidity Preference and Animal Spirits in the Post-Keynesian Theory of Capital Markets

Some notes on the paper.

The motivation for the paper was that when reading up on endogenous money during my degree I found that mainstream economists had largely integrated it in their more recent models. This integration, as the paper notes, usually took the form of a Taylor Rule. I should be clear that although this had become standard practice at some levels of the discipline…

The other day I did a post on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) that generated some discussion. I want to deal with a few of the issues raised in a some upcoming blogposts.

One issue of interest was that many EMH proponents said: “Sure, Warren Buffett and Keynes beat the market over a long-period we’re not saying that. Some people might beat the market out of pure luck.” Well that seems like rubbish to me.

Think about this. If the EMH says that no one single person can beat the market over the long-run that is a testable proposition. But if they then say that some people might but this is “by luck” that is not testable. That is, in fact, based on an a priori assumption that anyone who beats the market did not do so by skill.

Now, personally I think that some people beat the market by…

I’m currently reading Marc Lavoie’s new book Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations. This really is the defining text of Post-Keynesian economics today. Anyone who is really interested in Post-Keynesian economics should try to get their hands on it. It is a bit overpriced right now — so you can probably only realistically get it if you order it to your university library — but hopefully Marc can find a way to get it out for lower cost

The book is over 600 pages long and most of those pages are pretty dense. When I’ve finished it I will be either writing a review on the book or a full paper. I’m leaning toward the latter right now as I think there are a few things that might be worth saying. Anyway, for now I just want to discuss a single component of the theory that can be summarised in one…