Category: Uncategorized

There is a great line at the end of this article that says quite simply – “Economics is too important to be left to the Economists…” I’ve always attempted to describe successful Economics that is deeply considered, and empirically based – that it be viewed as applied philosophy. Intricate and coherent ideas, working with society rather than attempting to fit the models ex poste, and justifying anomalies through being at the tail end of the distribution curve, and therefore potentially not of equal relevance – when of course, often the models are specified or insufficiently detailed to calibrate for the anomaly….

So, how to proceed? Stop trying to model everything? That might not actually be a bad starting point… I wouldn’t expand on this too much here, but it does not diminish us intellectually to try and explain an idea using words rather than formula. Philosophy itself
managed to convey the profoundest contemplations of life, using words. I also don’t feel that we shouldn’t *not* try to model this complexity – look at weather forecasting! In the last 20 years with the presence of supercomputers, weather forecasting is far more accurate than it ever used to be and looks at similarly complex interplay of “Factors”, humidity, temperature, air pressure etc… Physics itself can discern the likelihood of the existence of life, or the possibility therein, 10 million light years away, through the utilisation of spectrum analysis.

It’s not that modelling isn’t astonishingly powerful. It’s simply that policymakers and political leaders and the electorate who put them there, can’t readily understand this stuff. Who can? There are perhaps a couple of hundred people in the world that can do this spectrum analysis… and yet human society, as is, not yet modelled, is not hugely less complex.

Our awareness of interdependence is greater now than at any time in the past, and so the nature of power in institutions; the rationale for continuing a war rather than striking a peace deal; the simple fact that the price of renewables doesn’t care whether Trump believes in climate change – Economics can, and should, seek to explain all of this. Behavioural Economics, of course, introduced powerful psychological thinking into the discipline. Politics has always been there. I’ve been arguing for a long time for a greater awareness of sociology and anthropology to also be integrated. When the homes of Hollywood’s elite burned in Los Angeles recently, this was quite an argument that you might be able to build a very tall fence on the Mexican border, but climate change isn’t going to respect that. Even if you build it higher. Economics, if it is to remain useful, needs to strive to explain these things to those who can effect change.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/10/rethinking-economics-student-academic-organisation-changing-education

Surely it is fairly straightforward. People are leaving the Conservative Party because it is more like a historical social club than a coherent political party, with any agenda whatsoever for a program of Government..

Kemi Badenock cannot say, “We need to know who’s on board – and good riddance to the rest of them!” Because what is she positing? On board with what? I’m supposed to be a policy professional, And I have a long history of political engagement, and yet I as a professional, have no clue whatsoever what the Conservative policy position, on pretty much anything, is?

So if you are faced with an entirely unpopular, distrusted, and toxic brand with no policies whatsoever – and a rising, popular bandwagon of nationalist fervour, replete with bunting, high-profile defections and a celebratory atmosphere…. Aren’t you going to sidle out of the room where the alcohol has dried up and somebody is badgering you in the corner with a consideration of railway provision in the East Midlands, and go and join the banging new nightclub up the road? It doesn’t particularly matter that the “new” nightclub is playing Sounds from the 70s and their keynote speaker is Alf Garnet.

Nope. It’s “the energy wot wins it”. Direction, Policy, belief, commitment – let alone enactment. (Lord knows what Reform will do if they actually win!) All of that can come later. For now they are just enjoying throwing shapes on the dance floor…

#suellabraverman #Reform #UKPolitics #ConservativeParty

Realistically it has taken me 40 years to accumulate my skills and knowledge in Economics and all the facets of International Relations that feed into credible Geostrategy. What I am not – and yet what seems a critical skill in today’s entirely fissile and unpredictable world, having anything to do with the US – is a Psychologist.

Trying to Game Theorise different plays and navigate the intricacies of Trump’s mind, appears to be an entirely unproductive and impossible task. I’m not sufficiently trained in the traits of narcissistic personality disorder, nor the application of sociopathy from a platform of ultimate power; nor the vulnerabilities that this exposes in his respondents… Nor the confused interplay of historical precedent – for instance, “The expansion of our territory. Because that is what was achieved by our truly great Presidents.”

We cannot treat each of these outbursts as warranting a dignified, let alone a diplomatic solution. They are random, and inconsistent. There is no overriding theme, except in my view, the very great attention that Trump gleans through having the world gaze at him in trepidation as to his next move. Surely the correct response is to ignore these outbursts… I believe a forensic psychologist would present evidence that the patient is not a credible witness and his testimony cannot be relied upon. He lacks foresight and an understanding of agency. That to respond in appeasement, or even to seek an audience, is simply to feed this delusion. The fact that the delusion itself is actually democratically granted through the holding of Office, should surely suggest the incumbent is unfit for such Office? Did Madison anticipate such a mind in his and others’ drafting of the US Constitution? Of course, it is robust enough to survive this.

A more pressing question is: Is it robust enough to remove on these bases above, the holder of the highest Office of State?

#Trump #USConstitution #Geopolitics #Psychology

Why let truth get in the way of a good story. President Maduro has been captured by the United States Administration, using Special Forces, in what almost certainly constitutes an illegal defiance of sovereign international law. Not wholly sure this latter point adds anything, as the US appears to find International Law – as it does domestic law (eg, amongst many other instances: the deployment of federal troops in US cities on spurious grounds of National Defence) – an inconvenience to be overridden when it so chooses.

President Maduro, according to US Attorney General, Pam Bondi, will be taken to the US to stand trial and “face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts.”

Yes. Justice, you hear – just like sovereign President Juan Orlando Hernández, of Honduras, who was considered by any in the know, to be bang to rights as an actual narco kingpin, in the smuggling of tonnes of cocaine, after detailed investigations lasting several years.

Piffle, said Trump, pardoning Hernandez, and released him from Federal prison. However, President Maduro is not “one of us” – he is an “awful person, a terrible person”, and with such deeply tested legal arguments as these, who else in the world can consider themselves safe? Spain has been dragging its feet on raising its Defense contribution to 3.5%, let alone the 5% agreed recently amongst NATO Nations. Yes, Pedro Sanchez, we hope you have an overnight bag packed, as Delta Force may soon be kicking in your door.

Constitutionally – and with this dawn raid, Trump hasn’t quite managed to entirely eviscerate the Venezuelan constitution – Delcy Rodríguez, is rightful heir to the Presidency. She is a staunch Maduro ally and loyalist. She is very unlikely to be changing tack any time soon…

Which brings us to the point – María Corina Machado, recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, and by many considered the rightful leader of Venezuela… But isn’t that what internal democratic change, and resistance to authoritarian rulers, from within a nation, is supposed to achieve?… Like a butterfly fighting its way out of its cocoon, its very survival depends upon the legitimacy of the fight. Too little struggle, and it’s wings cannot engorge with blood, powering its way into the world. Yes perhaps there has been enough blood in Venezuela, with fully 1/3 of its citizens refugees in neighboring nations, fleeing the autocratic Maduro.

Yet, as I have written elsewhere, there is zero appetite for the US to stay – and uphold the Pottery Barn rule (“if you break it you fix it”) – Nor is it clear how they can orchestrate Machado into the Presidency. But…they don’t care about that. They’ve got their man and damn the rest of it…

#Maduro #Venezuela #internationallaw #sovereignstates #Machado

Kier Starmer: “The people have spoken and it is clear that we will not be rejoining the European Union.”

Reality check: Politics versus actuality. It’s pretty clear that the populace has changed its mind over Brexit – and it’s also pretty clear that that happened sometime ago. If a guy is standing in front of you, punching you in the face pretty hard, and you say, “Please stop. I don’t like this anymore.” Then, this is not considered generally to be an irrational response.

Politico’s being not especially the brightest bunch in the box, are somewhat slow to respond to the fundamental and elemental shift, back to a recognition that participation in Europe is economically, socially, politically – and hell, I’m on a roll, even spiritually, good for you! So no. Just to be very clear and for the avoidance of doubt, the UK will not be rejoining the EU.

However over the course of the next several years, and very likely before the end of the Parliament, through the UK, “Reset” series of negotiations with the EU, things are developing (today an announcement will be made that UK is rejoining the critically important Erasmus scheme). Erasmus is a cultural powerhouse, and always acknowledged as such, and was a particularly ignorant act of vandalism, self-inflicted by the Johnson Government. Students have been clamouring for the UK to rejoin ever since.

Similarly, under the reset negotiations, there is very likely to be enacted a Youth Mobility Scheme, allowing free movement of young people between the UK and EU countries. Note, for the avoidance of doubt, the Youth Mobility Scheme is NOT free movement. Reality check: it IS free movement. Limited for now; very likely to expand in scope.

Similarly the UK remains, pound for pound, the most powerful military nation within the European Union, and you may not have noticed, but there is a war going on. We need them and they need us. So whilst the European Defence Fund failed in agreeing an additional contribution of circa £6BN, from the UK, to allow British firms to participate in defence contracting, it is not beyond the whim of participating politico’s to resolve this. Note: this does not mean that we are rejoining the EU.

Politics being politics they’ve come up with a word for this – the “Iterative Process.” So by this process, within several years we are very likely, on current trajectory, to have reestablished most of what we relinquished in leaving the EU.

Don’t you dare say we are rejoining !

#EU #Erasmus #KierStarmer #Brexit #freemovement

I was going to write a scathing critique on Rachel reeves’s already stale budget, and in order to fortify me for such a dispiriting task I decided that a milkshake should prop me up. Except I was considering whether or not I needed to cash in part of my ISA, until it was Governmentally revealed to me I didn’t need to worry about building up my cash ISA, as it wasn’t going to be allowed…

So I headed out to the local supermarket to buy my sugar heavy, milk based product, only to find that William, the helpful student who was moonlighting at the supermarket to try and pay down his sizable student loan, (which he had complained incessantly to me about, as he actually had to sit on the stairway of the lecture theatre, so full were the classes now)… Anyway, today was William’s last day, as Michael the store owner couldn’t afford his 8.5% pay rise… Or the freezing of his NIC’s contributions..

Never mind Michael!! I’ll just import my milkshake from Belgium. “I wouldn’t if I were you,” said Michael… “Because customs clearance takes so long, the stock is past its best by the time it gets here!”

Sigh…

#no-growth #budget #taxthresholds #labourmarket #Chancellor