I went to see a 300 year old opera at the weekend, Handel’s Alcina, at the Royal Opera House… And it made me think about President Xi.
Alcina is an enchantress who bewitches her suitors and turns them into docile beasts, who live in the forests around, unaware even that they live in this benighted state. Only Ruggiero, through realising his folly, with the devotion of his fiance, Bradamante (disguised as a man), and the presence of a magical ring, can break the spell. “Senator, I knew Bradamante, and Europe is no Bradamante…” With Europe’s $1Bn a day trade deficit, they (we) have their own spell to break.
For all the wonderful bombast, (minus the unauthorized State Ballroom), much affection was shown, yet little of practical substance achieved.
Scott Bessant, US Treasury Secretary, announced the Trade Agreement that had ended last year’s trade war was to be extended, only by two months until January, meaning that unresolved issues such as tariffs, Chinese purchasing agreements, technology transfer restrictions, and Chinese control over rare earths, were delayed into further rounds of negotiation. Yet – pomp and ceremony are not unimportant, because without a thawing of relations, any drive for further talks would be absent.
An agreement to share information on a potential security outbreak in Artificial Intelligence was also agreed. For President Xi, this is more about the loss of control of the Chinese Communist Party, over the information it permits citizens to see, and share.
The Iran war is another element. China is Iran’s biggest customer of oil exports and likewise provides components to Iran that it uses in missile manufacture, and they have shown little inclination to pause either trade. This dependency remains, and a further reason that post conflict, GCC countries are likely to seek an accommodation with Iran.
Taiwan was probably the highest item on President Xi’s agenda. China had wanted the US to continue to “not support” Taiwanese independence, and also to halt substantial sales of weapons to the island. On this latter point, they appear to have been successful, as sales, for now, have been halted.
Respect: just as important, if not more so, China wants to be acknowledged as an equal. Trump, from meeting President Xi at the airport, to the State Banquet, to the military fly past, and the genial showing off of his new marble helipad, it’s fair to say that China was treated as an equal.
Xi, however, just like Alcina, always seemed to be in command…
If you need Geostrategic and Geoeconomic guidance, with or without the operatic analogies, please get in touch 😊
#Statevisit #China #Trump #PresidentXi
