Using the political opposition in Taiwan to achieve your ends

Cheng Li-wun, the head of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang begins a two-week “peace mission” to Washington, with talking points that echo Beijing’s approach to the island.

So to jump right in, we simply believe a traditional invasion is increasingly unlikely… Most previous views of invasion have been based on a historical and traditional use of naval power. Modern warfare is a step change different to this and indeed China holds so many cards that despite the “porcupine policy” (a prickly opponent that you don’t particularly want to engage with – or “swallow”) of Taiwan, on so very many fronts China is able to overwhelm them. Physical trade blockades, cyber warfare, aerial incursions, strategic bombing. Underwater drones, in mass, that can dominate against possible US or external (should Japan get involved) submarine interference of any naval crossing. Sheer volume of materiel, and the ability for resupply, allowing for and accounting for losses – and a continuation of the drive.

Despite the decades-long US Policy of “strategic ambiguity”, Trump appears distinctly “strategically nonchalant”. Post Iran, It is even more unlikely that the US would seek to involve itself in a war on the other side of the world, that offered, as it sees it, little gain. Post Iran, The US is likely to consolidate towards two spheres of influence in the world. US hegemony in the West and Chinese, in the East.

Much is made of the lack of military experience on the part of China – it’s untested military capacity. Yet surely if any insight is to be gained from recent US excursions into Afghanistan and now Iran – it is the truism of, “everyone has a plan until first contact”, resulting in quite a different outcome than that anticipated. With a society built on truly the long game, this inexperience should not be relied upon.

However, increasingly, all of this is essentially irrelevant – as China, above the fact that it is becoming a great military power – politically it has played a fairly astonishing hand in the last couple of years. Not involving itself on the side of Ukraine, despite tacit disapproval of the invasion from the outset – whilst simultaneously not allowing Russia to leverage its energy strength against China; by the decade long build up of strategic oil reserves etc etc. By promoting reunification through use of political opposition in Taiwan, we believe the reality is that no invasion will be necessary.

#Taiwan #strategicambiguity #ChengLiwun #AfterIran