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Surely it is fairly straightforward. People are leaving the Conservative Party because it is more like a historical social club than a coherent political party, with any agenda whatsoever for a program of Government..

Kemi Badenock cannot say, “We need to know who’s on board – and good riddance to the rest of them!” Because what is she positing? On board with what? I’m supposed to be a policy professional, And I have a long history of political engagement, and yet I as a professional, have no clue whatsoever what the Conservative policy position, on pretty much anything, is?

So if you are faced with an entirely unpopular, distrusted, and toxic brand with no policies whatsoever – and a rising, popular bandwagon of nationalist fervour, replete with bunting, high-profile defections and a celebratory atmosphere…. Aren’t you going to sidle out of the room where the alcohol has dried up and somebody is badgering you in the corner with a consideration of railway provision in the East Midlands, and go and join the banging new nightclub up the road? It doesn’t particularly matter that the “new” nightclub is playing Sounds from the 70s and their keynote speaker is Alf Garnet.

Nope. It’s “the energy wot wins it”. Direction, Policy, belief, commitment – let alone enactment. (Lord knows what Reform will do if they actually win!) All of that can come later. For now they are just enjoying throwing shapes on the dance floor…

#suellabraverman #Reform #UKPolitics #ConservativeParty

Realistically it has taken me 40 years to accumulate my skills and knowledge in Economics and all the facets of International Relations that feed into credible Geostrategy. What I am not – and yet what seems a critical skill in today’s entirely fissile and unpredictable world, having anything to do with the US – is a Psychologist.

Trying to Game Theorise different plays and navigate the intricacies of Trump’s mind, appears to be an entirely unproductive and impossible task. I’m not sufficiently trained in the traits of narcissistic personality disorder, nor the application of sociopathy from a platform of ultimate power; nor the vulnerabilities that this exposes in his respondents… Nor the confused interplay of historical precedent – for instance, “The expansion of our territory. Because that is what was achieved by our truly great Presidents.”

We cannot treat each of these outbursts as warranting a dignified, let alone a diplomatic solution. They are random, and inconsistent. There is no overriding theme, except in my view, the very great attention that Trump gleans through having the world gaze at him in trepidation as to his next move. Surely the correct response is to ignore these outbursts… I believe a forensic psychologist would present evidence that the patient is not a credible witness and his testimony cannot be relied upon. He lacks foresight and an understanding of agency. That to respond in appeasement, or even to seek an audience, is simply to feed this delusion. The fact that the delusion itself is actually democratically granted through the holding of Office, should surely suggest the incumbent is unfit for such Office? Did Madison anticipate such a mind in his and others’ drafting of the US Constitution? Of course, it is robust enough to survive this.

A more pressing question is: Is it robust enough to remove on these bases above, the holder of the highest Office of State?

#Trump #USConstitution #Geopolitics #Psychology

Why let truth get in the way of a good story. President Maduro has been captured by the United States Administration, using Special Forces, in what almost certainly constitutes an illegal defiance of sovereign international law. Not wholly sure this latter point adds anything, as the US appears to find International Law – as it does domestic law (eg, amongst many other instances: the deployment of federal troops in US cities on spurious grounds of National Defence) – an inconvenience to be overridden when it so chooses.

President Maduro, according to US Attorney General, Pam Bondi, will be taken to the US to stand trial and “face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts.”

Yes. Justice, you hear – just like sovereign President Juan Orlando Hernández, of Honduras, who was considered by any in the know, to be bang to rights as an actual narco kingpin, in the smuggling of tonnes of cocaine, after detailed investigations lasting several years.

Piffle, said Trump, pardoning Hernandez, and released him from Federal prison. However, President Maduro is not “one of us” – he is an “awful person, a terrible person”, and with such deeply tested legal arguments as these, who else in the world can consider themselves safe? Spain has been dragging its feet on raising its Defense contribution to 3.5%, let alone the 5% agreed recently amongst NATO Nations. Yes, Pedro Sanchez, we hope you have an overnight bag packed, as Delta Force may soon be kicking in your door.

Constitutionally – and with this dawn raid, Trump hasn’t quite managed to entirely eviscerate the Venezuelan constitution – Delcy Rodríguez, is rightful heir to the Presidency. She is a staunch Maduro ally and loyalist. She is very unlikely to be changing tack any time soon…

Which brings us to the point – María Corina Machado, recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, and by many considered the rightful leader of Venezuela… But isn’t that what internal democratic change, and resistance to authoritarian rulers, from within a nation, is supposed to achieve?… Like a butterfly fighting its way out of its cocoon, its very survival depends upon the legitimacy of the fight. Too little struggle, and it’s wings cannot engorge with blood, powering its way into the world. Yes perhaps there has been enough blood in Venezuela, with fully 1/3 of its citizens refugees in neighboring nations, fleeing the autocratic Maduro.

Yet, as I have written elsewhere, there is zero appetite for the US to stay – and uphold the Pottery Barn rule (“if you break it you fix it”) – Nor is it clear how they can orchestrate Machado into the Presidency. But…they don’t care about that. They’ve got their man and damn the rest of it…

#Maduro #Venezuela #internationallaw #sovereignstates #Machado

Kier Starmer: “The people have spoken and it is clear that we will not be rejoining the European Union.”

Reality check: Politics versus actuality. It’s pretty clear that the populace has changed its mind over Brexit – and it’s also pretty clear that that happened sometime ago. If a guy is standing in front of you, punching you in the face pretty hard, and you say, “Please stop. I don’t like this anymore.” Then, this is not considered generally to be an irrational response.

Politico’s being not especially the brightest bunch in the box, are somewhat slow to respond to the fundamental and elemental shift, back to a recognition that participation in Europe is economically, socially, politically – and hell, I’m on a roll, even spiritually, good for you! So no. Just to be very clear and for the avoidance of doubt, the UK will not be rejoining the EU.

However over the course of the next several years, and very likely before the end of the Parliament, through the UK, “Reset” series of negotiations with the EU, things are developing (today an announcement will be made that UK is rejoining the critically important Erasmus scheme). Erasmus is a cultural powerhouse, and always acknowledged as such, and was a particularly ignorant act of vandalism, self-inflicted by the Johnson Government. Students have been clamouring for the UK to rejoin ever since.

Similarly, under the reset negotiations, there is very likely to be enacted a Youth Mobility Scheme, allowing free movement of young people between the UK and EU countries. Note, for the avoidance of doubt, the Youth Mobility Scheme is NOT free movement. Reality check: it IS free movement. Limited for now; very likely to expand in scope.

Similarly the UK remains, pound for pound, the most powerful military nation within the European Union, and you may not have noticed, but there is a war going on. We need them and they need us. So whilst the European Defence Fund failed in agreeing an additional contribution of circa £6BN, from the UK, to allow British firms to participate in defence contracting, it is not beyond the whim of participating politico’s to resolve this. Note: this does not mean that we are rejoining the EU.

Politics being politics they’ve come up with a word for this – the “Iterative Process.” So by this process, within several years we are very likely, on current trajectory, to have reestablished most of what we relinquished in leaving the EU.

Don’t you dare say we are rejoining !

#EU #Erasmus #KierStarmer #Brexit #freemovement

I was going to write a scathing critique on Rachel reeves’s already stale budget, and in order to fortify me for such a dispiriting task I decided that a milkshake should prop me up. Except I was considering whether or not I needed to cash in part of my ISA, until it was Governmentally revealed to me I didn’t need to worry about building up my cash ISA, as it wasn’t going to be allowed…

So I headed out to the local supermarket to buy my sugar heavy, milk based product, only to find that William, the helpful student who was moonlighting at the supermarket to try and pay down his sizable student loan, (which he had complained incessantly to me about, as he actually had to sit on the stairway of the lecture theatre, so full were the classes now)… Anyway, today was William’s last day, as Michael the store owner couldn’t afford his 8.5% pay rise… Or the freezing of his NIC’s contributions..

Never mind Michael!! I’ll just import my milkshake from Belgium. “I wouldn’t if I were you,” said Michael… “Because customs clearance takes so long, the stock is past its best by the time it gets here!”

Sigh…

#no-growth #budget #taxthresholds #labourmarket #Chancellor

Peace is not peace if it is arrived at through a non-committal third party steadying the hand of your enemy who is pointing a pistol at you.

That is not peace; that is not even appeasement. It’s surrender. Which could easily lead to occupation.

Ukraine is very careful about declaring numbers of its dead and injured, and the general consensus is that Russia now is at more than 1 million dead and injured – again without specifying the breakdown. Russia is big enough and populous enough to have been able to mobilise “politically insignificant” (as they see them) conscripts from its further geographic reaches. Many of the educated professional middle classes fled across the border as soon as the war was declared. Putin has prevented serious political unrest by not conscripting greater numbers from the urban elite in the most populous and politically relevant cities. The Wagner Group ploughed through tens of thousands of prisoners, promising them amnesty from their crimes and a lump sum, if they stayed fighting for 6 months. The general belief is that roughly 50% of these prisoner conscripts died – as they were the least trained and the most expendable – and deployed to the sharp end of the front line. The current deal for prisoner recruits is “till the end of the war or death, whichever comes first.” Nice.

The simple point being, Russia simply doesn’t care who it kills, including a sizable portion of its own population.

Surely one of the most embarrassing agreements in modern history is the Budapest Memorandum. Signed by John Major for the UK, Bill Clinton, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma, for Ukraine. In exchange for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear arsenal, the signatories provided security assurances that respected Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The realpolitik of this has proven too difficult. Why then, should Ukraine trust any peace treaty signed by Russia? Why? Apparently there is such disquiet on the streets of Kiev, amongst veterans of the Army, and soldiers on leave, that already a revolution is being spoken of. So, externally disastrous for its territorial integrity, surrendering cities not yet militarily seized – and internally disastrous, as the country’s own society rejects such a peace plan.

Zelenskyy has said with gravity that Ukraine faces losing either its dignity or its leading partner, in acceptance of such a deal. Yet beneath this sadness, I am sure a very real sense of betrayal exists. As one Ukrainian politician said, “on the one hand we lose US Patriot missiles, if we don’t accept, yet on the other hand, we lose our country if we do…”

I’m not sure this will go down too well for Trump with the Nobel committee…

#Ukraine #Appeasement #BudapestMemorandum #WagnerGroup #Zelensky