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How to win every battle and still lose the war.

Donald J Trump manages to deprave himself yet further with almost every utterance. That would be fine, even if he was a President in the previous mode, following regular American Presidential practice of respecting Congress, particularly in relation to waging war on countries that up until that point, were actively engaged in diplomacy. Which nation can now trust the word of the US? Would you? My own experience of Northern Ireland taught me that you cannot subjugate an ideology through force. Only negotiation can secure peace. Trump’s actions belittle the US and actually indicate something far more serious: its diminution in the eyes of the whole world.

The Iranian regime has lost its Air Force, and its Navy… It has lost the substantive methods by which it can refine uranium. Yet it hasn’t lost its knowledge to do so, nor actually the 400 kg of 60% refined uranium buried in the debris of previous attacks. Nor has it lost its regime. Somebody with the name Khamenei has recently been appointed to Supreme Leader; the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and the Foreign Secretary remain the same. This Khamenei doesn’t have the theological credentials of his father, being more rooted in the militarism and self-interest of the IRGC, so arguably it could even be a retrograde step as this force consolidates its powerbase.

Closing of the Straits of Hormuz is proving a cash cow to both the Iranian and Russian leadership, as through force of necessity, the US has suspended its sanctions on their oil. Simultaneously, of course nearly every other vessel can’t get through, including crucial elements for the world economy such vital rare earths – and particularly nitrogen and potassium fertilisers. I’ve recently learnt that helium is essential in the production of microchips. The Middle East is one of the world’s leading locations for the production of nitrogen fertiliser, completely fundamental in maintaining farming yields. We are currently at the start of the main northern hemispheric spring planting season. Food inflation is one thing, food shortages are something entirely different.

The US electorate who predominantly chose Trump for his stated lack of interest in foreign intervention, is particularly sensitive to price increases at home, most notably at the gas pumps – in a land dependent upon the car.

The UK, for all its flaws, managed to replace Liz Truss in just over 40 days. Donald J Trump is now on something like 500, and for very many Americans this is 501 too many. To paraphrase Henry II, “Will nobody rid me of this meddlesome President?”

The Chinese are loving it, this week’s Economist cover states, “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”

Iran #Trump #Diplomacy #Hormuz