Down but not out.
I’ve written before about the fact that a headless chicken can nevertheless run around and cause havoc for some time, and surely this analogy yet again is apt for Iran. It is not possible to achieve regime change from an air campaign alone. Without either orchestrating and supporting an internal opposition to act as proxy for your supported decisions, on the ground, we leave the regime wounded and dangerous – and as we’ve seen in January, more than capable of exacting lethal revenge upon its internal dissidents.
For a host of recent political and historical precedents, the West absolutely should not place boots on the ground, as to date, that also has a fairly ignominious history…
There is a slow burning appeal to the US, that simply if new custodians of the existing regime behaved quite differently in how they conducted their external relations: removal of inciting and supporting proxy Islamist groups across the entire region, from Lebanon to Yemen. That if Iran, under a modified regime, more willing to engage with the West, without adopting any additional elements of secularization; simply by ceasing to exert intimidatory tactics – that this itself could be considered a win for this air campaign by the US. It is important to stress, that it’s the US with the exclusion of other Western allies, as the legal case for intervention is decidedly shaky. Any concept of a preemptive attack needs to be based on an ‘evidenced’ imminent attack about to be launched – in this case against direct US interests, and there is no such evidence. In my own view, I believe that the UK Government has on this occasion acted entirely correctly.
It’s difficult to discern any coherent plan – other than lopping off of the head, Which the US has now achieved. However an attack has been anticipated by Iran, for a long time and unless significant elements of the IRGC do decide that they have lost the taste for killing their brothers and sisters, and orchestrate an internal rebellion – which given what we saw in January appears unlikely – within a matter of weeks, there will be a new theocratic head of a theocratic country.
This is not to decry the power that will now be exerted by Iran’s neighbours, notably the commercial heft of the UAE, which will not stand for its commercial model of trade, tourism and a stable home for so very many westerners who have relocated there. Similarly the critical rapprochement that was slowly bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran together, will be shaken, precisely at a time that Saudi is seeking to reinvent itself, post oil, with mega projects like Neom. Having a medievalist neighbour that believes everything within missile striking distance, should be struck, is going to prompt some radical and serious diplomatic intervention on their part. It took a long time for thawing relations, initiated by China in 2023. Iran is likely to think twice after any such approach by Saudi.
#Khamenei #Iran #Regime
MERCIAR BUSINESS CONSULTING 