In some ways Trump is the Economist’s perfect President: he is Stochastic. He’s also a geostrategic quandary…
Stochastic, not sarcastic 🤦🏻! For the non-economists amongst you, this means he has a random probability distribution in his actions that doesn’t lend itself to pre-action analysis.
I’m talking about Venezuela. He brings it up in the way James Joyce brings up the possibility of redemption in Catholic theology…i.e, it’s always there yet always uncertain. Trump has also made a great deal about being a stay-at-home President, avoiding forever wars, yet then of course he speaks about developing the Riviera in Gaza and the possibility of invading Venezuela..
In American terms Venezuela is symptomatic of a demand and supply problem. As somebody relatively abstinent in life, I happen to believe that it is the demand considerations that are the driving force. If US wealth and proclivity to drug taking weren’t so enormous, the rest of the world wouldn’t keep trying to sell them enormous quantities of drugs, therefore rendering themselves liable to possible invasion and complete societal breakdown post invasion. Much as I admired Ronald Reagan, I always found Nancy Reagan’s, “Just Say No”, to drugs, somewhat hectoring and naive. If anything, drugs have entirely surpassed all class barriers and are considered, if not completely normal in polite society, then certainly not unusual. And I am not speaking about fentanyl.
The idea of a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela to disrupt drug exports is considered extremely unlikely, due to the immense costs and risks. If we analyse the geo-strategic considerations, this reveals the multifaceted nature of such a decision.
The core strategic dilemma is that a military invasion would address a significant transnational criminal threat but at the potential cost of triggering a regional humanitarian and political catastrophe, alienating key global partners, and tying the U.S. down in a prolonged, costly nation-building exercise. The perceived benefits are primarily tactical (disrupting drug flows), while the risks are overwhelmingly strategic (global reputation, regional stability, great power competition).
Any invasion would destabilize neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil, fueling corruption and violence in the Caribbean and Central America. The existing refugee crisis from Venezuela’s collapse has already placed a massive strain on the region.
Trump’s has mused ousting Maduro’s regime, with, it seems no post regime plan in place.
Stochasticism is what makes Trump interesting, yet unpredictable. Unfortunately the ramifications of invading a state, and lacking the will or resource, or application, to implement and manage a post invasion plan, can all too easily be seen in Iraq and other states, and this alone should be sufficient to prevent it happening…
#stochastic #internationalrelations #Venezuela #Trump #economics
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