Ahh, politics, politics… Again with the rhetoric, Keir Starmer has today launched the latest Strategic Defence Review, SDR, which by any level of assessment is a bit of a damp squib. Treasury estimates of Defense spending during the course of this Parliament, come in at roughly £350Bn, of which only a paltry £10Bn is considered new additional funds resulting from the SDR.
In the Spring Statement 2025, the government announced a £2.2 billion uplift to the MOD budget for 2025/26, as part of the commitment to increase NATO-qualifying defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027. That commitment remains, though the uplift is now £5Bn. Real-terms defence spending fell by 22%, between 2009/10 and 2016/17 (from £59.1 billion to £46.2 billion in 2024/25 prices), then rising to nearer its 2010 levels.
A relevant commitment to “upto” a dozen SSN-AUKUS class submarines, likely carrying a tactical nuclear capability, is welcome, though with the lead time required, are unlikely to be in place until the late 2030s. Some German military analysts have estimated that Russia could rebuild its current fighting force to a level capable of preemptively attacking a NATO member state, by 2029. I have written elsewhere (also received like a damp squib), rather than live in fear of an anticipated attack at some random date in the future, we should preemptively attack Russia, particularly now whilst its fighting forces are depleted. As reminded again recently, by Polish Foreign Secretary, Radek Sikorsky, who quoted US General Mattis: “Why do we need 300 million Americans to defend 500 million Europeans from 150 million Russians?” I would add, strategically, that Russian GDP is 24.5 times smaller than the combined GDP of NATO members, and that a number of these member states have tactical nuclear weapons readily deployable.
It appears that £1.5Bn is to be spent on ammunition, yet analysts estimate that £8Bn is needed for full warfighting capability – whether that be now (particularly in the replenishment of ammo given to Ukraine), or before the end of the Parliament. The Navy and the RAF appear to have done relatively well out of this SDR, whilst the Army are getting enhanced electromagnetic defense capabilities and a consideration towards military housing. For every 100 British soldiers who are recruited, 130 are currently leaving. Addressing this is critical, as is reversing the complete disinclination of current UK youth to participate in the military, for a whole host of socio-economic, and political reasons…
#strategicdefencereview #aukus #Russia #MOD
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